How+likely+scenarios+compare+with+my+preferred+scenarios+in+my+country+of+origin


 * Looking ahead at Australia in 2032: How likely scenarios compare with my preferred scenarios in my country of origin.**

**Introduction**

Across a range of estimates, the narrative for the coming twenty years promises the world - and Australians - considerable discontinuity.1. In a period of human history already demonstrating significant unanticipated change, the direction this change will take - even over such a short time frame - is less certain.

There are two main paths forward - the most likely, and the one I would prefer (which at times, is also likely). In the most likely, nervousness about global instability will lead Australia to be defensive about our current good fortunes and take a ‘business as usual’ approach, continuing to enjoy economic growth through a heavy reliance on fossil fuel exports and ongoing exploitation of other natural resources.2.

We will evolve stronger ties to China and other emerging Asian economies, struggling to balance this against a more complex relationship with the US. This approach will continue to afford very comfortable lifestyles for the majority of Australians, though the disparity between rich and poor will widen, partly due to the ongoing trend of technology replacing manual jobs, and the outsourcing of employment to developing nations, which offer Australian businesses lower wage burdens.

In my preferred 2032 Australia, we will move through a period of transition away from reliance on current economic structures and inputs, and heavily invest in future-focussed sustainable technologies. Australia will become a powerhouse of clean energy supply - which we will harness and export to growing populations amongst regional neighbours. As we realise our infinite potential in this sphere, we will undergo a paradigm shift in realising our nations’ key assets - our people and our capacity for innovation, and this will contribute new strengths to our international relationships.

Our fun-loving values and cultural disposition will lead us to move away from technology as a replacement for social interaction, placing us back in charge of technology, rather than the other way around.2. In stepping away from fossil fuel reliance and an obsession with the old economic model pursuing infinite growth, we will evolve into a culture admired the world over - one which recognises that appreciation of our unique natural environment, our love of the outdoors and ‘fair go’ ethos as a basis for social equity are the true benchmarks of happiness, which we all have a right to pursue and share with future generations.

So how does will this impact day-to-day life for Australians in 2032? The following briefly touches on implications across a range of areas:

**Politics** //Likely// We’re already seeing seismic shifts in global political landscape, as the world becomes uneasy with the state of things. This is likely to continue for many years to come - as balance of power in one region alters, other regions are likely to respond with their own change. Currently this seems to be leading to a massive surge in neo-conservatism - but politics is a pendulum and in 20 years time, the world may well have swung back the other way again.

//Ideally// As it becomes more apparent that 21st century challenges are without geopolitical boundaries, a new spirit of consultation and equality will evolve. Priorities for governments will shift to offer more equitable and sustainable pathways.

**Urban development** //Likely// Increase in urbanisation continues. Cities are re-designed to meet changing retail trends and public transport/infrastructure/recreational space demands. 2. //Ideally// As for likely - urbanisation, when properly planned, reduces environmental stresses and has potential to reintroduce core community values.

**Material living standards and quality of life**

//Likely// Increasing demand for experiences over products.People expect personalised, faster and better services. Seek higher-end experiences.Continued confusion regarding happiness, as pursuit of material wealth proves only to increase - material wealth. Depletion of limited resources leads to governments and businesses discovering new ways to ensure quality of life for future generations. Increased connectivity immerses individuals, communities, governments and businesses even further into virtual world. Also increase in importance of social relationships. 2.

//Ideally// We listen to Socrates: //“The secret of happiness, you see, is not found in seeking more, but in developing the capacity to enjoy less.”// Economic and social unrest short-term as the transition from fossil-fuel dependence to clean energy production proves much easier - and far more profitable - than originally anticipated. Novelty of obsession with social media and digital communication wanes, replaced by return to face-to-face interaction. 2.

**Indigenous Australians**

//Likely// White Australia’s track record in its relationship with and treatment of Indigenous Australians continues to be at best, well-intentioned though misinformed, and at worst, abusive. A lack of ability of Governments to accurately appreciate the sensitivities and nuances of Indigenous culture, coupled with severe mistakes in the consultation process, make the time lapse between former Prime Minister Rudd’s Apology to the Stolen Generation - and meaningful progress in closing the Indigenous/white divide, a major embarrassment for successive governments and a source of international shame. Indigenous Australians continue to be disadvantaged in health, education, employment and life expectancy against the national average. By 2025 6.9 million Australians will be obese - already, Indigenous Australians are 1.2 times more likely to be obese with obesity affecting approximately 60% over the aged of 18 today. 3.

//Ideally// The gap between living standards of black and white Australians is closed. Indigenous history is taught with pride in all Australian schools. Indigenous cultural values are represented at all levels of government, business and community. Indigenous leaders champion environmental management and sustainability.

**Employment**

//Likely// Ageing population leads to longer working life, and alters structure and function of labour market.2. //Ideally// Job-sharing becomes the norm, leading to unemployment all-time lows. Work for dole mandatory.

**International relations**

//Likely// This is the ‘Asian Century’. China and India are new centres of world economic power. Leads to new trade, business and cultural ties with Australia. 2. //Ideally// As the Asian Century takes off, Australia embraces this shift, yet learns lesson from previously selling out to US interests and this time, manages to retain its own individual credibility and identity, without selling out or propitiating to any international power.

**Economics**

//Likely// While rapid growth in Asia, South America and some growth in Africa transitions billions out of poverty and into middle income classes, in a wealthy nation such as Australia, the shift is markedly different: The disparity between rich and poor increases as technology replaces blue collar jobs (or outsourcing to emerging economies where labour is cheaper). Cost of living increases drive a greater wedge between the educated privileged and working classes. Australia scrambles to adapt focus to longer term industries like technology and renewables. 2.

//Ideally// New measure of wealth is access rather than possession, along with quality of peoples’ lives. 4,5.

**Alcohol and recreational drugs** //Likely// Alcohol continues to be most widely used drug in Australia. Alcohol and illicit drug use continue to impact health (disease, mental health), employment, death, violence and crime statistics. //Ideally// Greater social awareness of harmful effects of alcohol and corresponding reduction in use. Recognised as a potentially dangerous drug, harmful consumption of alcohol joins illicit drug use as socially undesirable.

**Role of Government** //Likely// Technology leads to increased ability of state to monitor business and finance activity.2. Emphasis on economic wellbeing at the expense of environmental wellbeing continues trend of business using power to influence public policy (eg planning and development, sale of government assets) //Ideally// Electorate pressure forces Australian Government to refocus - and recognise their greatest asset is people, not just dollars. Correspondingly, government begins to pull away from role as implementers of corporate interests, to act in the interests of their constituents - with a new focus on and respect for environment seen as critical to the long term health and wellbeing of the nation - for sustained prosperity.

**Welfare provisions**

//Likely// Downturn in economic growth impacts social services. Ageing population leads to retirement savings shortage/increased welfare pressure and rapid healthcare spending increases.2. //Ideally// Value of our ageing population is recognised as offering unique wisdom, skills, knowledge and mentorship. This changes the demographic of the labour market and eases welfare burden.

**Multinational corporations and control of national resources**

//Likely// Resource conflicts as water/other resources become more scarce. Demand for biofuel production threatens land used for food production. Coal and oil continue to supply most of Australia’s growing energy demand. 1. //Ideally// Mining in the future may happen above ground (recycling) more than below ground. Coal and oil reliance replaced by uptake and implementation of renewable resource supply - eg wind, solar, wave technology2.

**Three scenarios of particular interest - likely and ideal directions.**

**1. Population size** //Likely// While the world population is skyrocketing (7,072,870,486 as at October 16, 2012 at 8:19pm and counting) there are predictions that estimate a levelling off of numbers at around 10 billion by 2200. 6. Global population growth (reaching 8.2 billion by 2025) will increase pressure on food, energy and water resources. This will also impact Australia. 2. On a shorter timescale and closer to home, less than 3% of world population growth to 2025 occurs in the west. 2. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia’s population will increase to 27.23 million by 2026, and 35.5 million by 2056 (based on current trends in fertility, life expectancy and migration.) 7. However, the Australian Centre for Population and Urban Research has modelled that our population could double to 45 million by 2060 - statistics which would be unsustainable, given growing pressure on our food and water supplies, and the likely impacts of climate change.8. It is also possible that rapid population growth in other regions will place pressure on Australia to increase immigration allowances and share the burden.

The World Bank estimates global demand for food will rise by 50%, by 2030 - as a result of population increase, as well as increases in global affluence and a steady shift to western dietary preferences. It is estimated that by 2025, 1.4 billion people across 36 countries will face a shortage of fresh water or arable land. (As at October 2012, over 807 million people worldwide have no safe drinking water supply.)9. //Ideally// As decreasing the burden of overpopulation becomes a priority, global population growth slows dramatically through family planning and female education. Australia changes policy on asylum seekers in line with international human rights expectations, allowing us to undertake much greater responsibility for those in genuine need of asylum.

**//2.//** **Religious affiliations and spirituality** //Likely// Though Australia continues to be secular, conservative religious groups (predominantly Christian affiliated) continue to work to influence public policy. This further emphasises an existing divide - between the neo-conservative religious populations, and those who reject religion - as an increasing number of Australians move away from organised religion. A 2008 survey ranked Australian youth as ‘least religious in the world’.10. If this mirrors the trend seen in the United States, religion could play an increasingly influential - and divisive - role in society, to the detriment of non-mainstream religions and spiritual movements.

//Ideally// The big growth area is spirituality: //“Spirituality is not just a personal quest of the twenty first century; it’s a multi-disciplinary subject. It’s cropping up in physics, in biology, health care, sociology, management, social welfare…even find economists writing on it.”//

Dr Gianni Zappalà, Centre for Social Impact Spiritual understanding and tolerance replace organised religion as dominant spiritual force. Australia is a model for spiritual harmony amongst all represented faiths and beliefs and non-beliefs. Catholic Church takes responsibility for Church’s widespread sexual crimes and their defiance in the face of such activity over many decades. Female priests ordained and all priests allowed to marry - a move which dramatically reduces abberative behaviour.

**3. Natural Environment** //Likely// Climate change, sea level rise, salinity, extreme weather events - and in particular, water scarcity - will all have increasing impacts on Australia’s natural environment - moreso here than in many other countries. Natural habitats, animal and plant species continue rapid decline and rate of biodiversity drops as our natural world risks being decimated.11. A great uncertainty accompanies our transition from polluting energy sources (oil, coal, gas) to sustainable (and storable) supplies. How long this takes and the resulting power shifts as fossil fuel producers lose sway, will dramatically influence global futures and centres of power.2. As Australia is a major exporter of grain, the shift in global focus to the production of biofuels suggests there will be even greater pressure to expand agricultural areas - and demand for water. Expect food prices to increase accordingly.2.

//Ideally// Response to this threat inspires unprecedented ownership and attendance from majority of Australians, and we see a reversal from decline to growth of biodiversity. New energy sources - solar, geothermal, wind, supply our growing population - and give rise to new export commodities. Instead of failing our renewable energy innovators and scientists through lack of funding and support and losing their ideas to foreign investors, Australia acknowledges and properly invests in its intellectual capacity and culture of innovation, to become a key player at the forefront of sustainable energy technology.

**In conclusion**

While Australia is set to experience significant change in the coming 20 years, I foresee the most important will relate to three key spheres, each influencing the other: Population growth, with significant implications for Australia in terms of food and water supply and potential territorial threat - our religious and spiritual identity, due to a combination of increasing political lobbying from the conservative Christian right and a shift in diversity due to growing multicultural influence and their traditional religious values; and the impacts of climate change such as increasing severity of extreme weather events (drought, flooding, bushfires) sea level rise, loss of biodiversity, water scarcity, food shortages, ocean warming and acidification.

While it is likely we will not address these issues until they become unavoidable, ideally we’d look 20 years ahead. By considering their impacts on our current way of living now, we would be better placed to steer our future towards more ideal outcomes - sustainable and equitable outcomes, offering the greatest long term benefit to all Australians and the environment we call home.

**References:**

1. National Intelligence Council, //Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World,// November 2008. Accessible at http://www.aicpa.org/research/cpahorizons2025/globalforces/downloadabledocuments/globaltrends.pdf 2. Hajkowicz SA, Cook H, Littleboy A. 2012. //Our Future World; Global megatrends that will change the way we live//. The 2012 Revision, CSIRO, Australia. 3. Preventative Health Taskforce, //Obesity in Australia: A need for urgent action//, accessible at [] 4. Millennium Project Scenarios, Global Normative Scenario. Excerpt from " // [|1999 State of the Future: Challenges We Face at the Millennium] // " accessible at http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/normscen.html 5. Raskin, P. //Scenes from the Great Transition.// Solutions for a sustainable and desirable future, accessible at [] 6. Worldometers - real time world statistics, accessible at [] 7. ABS Population Projections accessible at [|http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3222.0\] 8. Centre for Population and Urban Research, accessible at [] 9. WHO/Unicef Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) for Water Supply and Sanitation accessible at [] 10. Wikipedia, //Religion in Australia, accessible at//[] 11. Garnaut R, //The Garnaut Climate Change Review: Final Report, 2008//. Commonwealth of Australia