Week+9+-+Likely+futures+of+humankind


 * Write around 750 words on whether and/or how the (week's) resources have affected your thinking about likely futures of humankind.**

Prior to reviewing the prescribed resources, my thinking about likely human futures was largely restricted to projections about Australia. Subsequently, my first response was that my existing perceptions, though too narrow in focus, were generally in alignment with what I read. Broadly speaking, these perceptions were:


 * Australia short to mid term.**

A shift in focus to China as major world power will have significant influence on Australian economics, political allegiances and population trends. Already culturally diverse, our ethnicity will be particularly influenced by our closest neighbours. As Asian investors secure more and more real estate and commercial interests in this country, our economic ties will demand political softening towards China in particular. Australia will move away from its traditionally strong dependence on a US alliance, to a tentative new alliance with China and renewed focus on our role as a South East Asian country. An increase in the importance of the China-Australia strategic alliance will also be encouraged to offset growing risks of political aggression/military activity and terrorism from Indonesia.


 * Economic transition.**

As scarcity of water and other natural resources continues to be a growing concern, Australia will expand its shift away from a traditional agricultural and manufacturing base, to a technology and innovation driven economy. This will be further enhanced by increased immigration of highly skilled innovators from China, India and other regional neighbours.


 * Energy transition.**

Another area of significant growth in Australia will be the innovation and mining of new energy sources - solar, geothermal, wind - and yet-to-be-developed technologies, sourced to supply the Country’s growing population - and as an export commodity. This will begin but will take many years to develop, coupled with economic and social unrest as the transition from heavily fossil-fuel dependent living to clean energy production proves painful.

However, it also became apparent that my thinking was not broad enough. There were a number of key likelihoods raised which I had not fully considered, summarised as follows:

> Technology; Human consciousness and capacity and Economics/Politics > These could be at odds with each other //or// mutually reinforcing2.
 * Rapid, uneven change marked by discontinuity.1. May be driven by
 * High level of risk due to instability/rate of change/emerging powers/energy crisis/economic reconfiguration.1.
 * Growing population - matched by growing demand for food, energy, resources. Will increase rich-poor gap with global rise in number of middle class, demanding greater share of resources.1.
 * Resource crisis - particularly water, which will influence food production and population spread.1.
 * Globalisation. Though this is already happening (for example, the economic woes of Ireland/Spain/ Greece threaten stability in wealthy countries like Germany and France) it will dramatically expand to reorder current geographical, political, religious, cultural and socio-economic divisions (Also dramatic increase in ethnic diversity) 2.
 * Conversely, a greater focus on human wellbeing and rights may mean that, according to Paul Raskin’s One World reality of 2084, extreme poverty could be all but eradicated.3.

A number of significant and challenging future directions also presented themselves. Though not certain, they are important to consider as they represent distinct possibilities: 1.


 * Terrorism/ territorial or resource-based conflict employs WMD’s, resulting in shock, political change, power shifts, environmental and social fallout


 * End of Western domination - new powers take over and rewrite rules


 * Climate change pace and trajectory - unexpectedly fast, dramatic or unforeseen consequences of this action


 * Resource conflict - challenges for precious energy resources turns into open hostilities (esp between China-India)


 * New rulers - non-governmental players rise up and determine agenda based on their own interests (possibly religious/ criminal/ corporate powers)

I had also previously restricted much of my thinking about century 21st humanity to issues of environment. Given the enormous challenges we face in this arena, my perceptions had unfortunately tended to focus on the mitigation of //negative// effects. This prevented consideration of the vast number of positive advances humankind is likely to make, such as:

> > > > >
 * Technology - Biotechnology, nanotechnology, genetic engineering of plants, animals and humans, a cyberspace boom. 2.
 * Machine intelligence - Computers so compact and efficient, they run everything - households, business, leisure, organise, educate, shopping, money, trade. Counter software biggest area of growth in crime. People recognised by machines - eliminates credit cards, toll booths, passports; retailer databases remember everything about customer - past purchases, preferences, sizing. 2.
 * Health - science overcomes major obstacles to human health. Many diseases eradicated or managed, more accessible to more people, early detection and prevention play increasing role2.
 * Education - global literacy - combined with communications technology, leads to increases in global understanding, ethics and behaviour as well as population stabilisation due to family planning, women entering workforce and access to contraception2.
 * Security - Global network of military peacekeepers working together and monitoring. Protects all countries who pay a ‘security insurance fee’2.
 * Economics - Access not possession, becomes new measure of wealth2. Enhancing quality of peoples’ lives, not quantity of their possessions is new goal for human development. 3.

Leaping forward and looking to the year 3000, a number of possible futures also offered me new insight into the long-term effects of some ideas and decisions we’re considering now. Though their distance from the present day makes such projections more volatile, they deal with fascinating and compelling possibilities. From time travel to the result of escalating human and machine conflict or the division of life into three key forms variously rejecting, embracing and being overwhelmed by technology, these are futures beyond most imaginations, and yet they are informed by highly intelligent, present-day forward-thinkers. 4.

The result is I now have a more expansive view of likely human futures. This not only encompasses broader perspectives geographically speaking, but also an awareness and understanding of a great many more exciting opportunities and potential challenges as humanity moves forward.

**References** 1. National Intelligence Council, accessible at http://www.aicpa.org/research/cpahorizons2025/globalforces/downloadabledocuments/globaltrends.pdf 2. Millennium Project Scenarios, Global Normative Scenario Excerpt from " [|1999 State of the Future: Challenges We Face at the Millennium] " accessible at http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/normscen.html 3. Raskin, P. //Scenes from the Great Transition.// Solutions for a sustainable and desirable future, accessible at http://www.thesolutionsjournal.com/node/1140 4. Millennium 3000 Scenarios: From the Millennium Project accessible at http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/m3000-scenarios.html